Probability & Expected Value

Simulate 5,000+ outcomes to calculate Win Rate and Expected Value.

Strategy

🎲 Monte Carlo Mode

Spot Price

$200

Implied Volatility

30%

Days to Expiration

45d

Underlying

Smooth

Portfolio summary

Options: -1 PUT 210, +1 PUT 190

Preset based

Strike Prices

-1 PUT

$210

Strike

$210

+1 PUT

$190

Strike

$190

Run

final

n=0

POP

—

p10

—

p50

—

p90

—

Note: This EV/POP is calculated based on "expiry payoff" (not mark-to-market). But it provides a strong intuition for learning.

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